Threat modelling
Mar. 22nd, 2022 11:13 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
brin_bellway[fairly mild cw: illness, death, apocalypse]
Yesterday I came across this government database of Canadian disasters.
Sorting Ontarian disasters by descending number of casualties, a clear Top 3 shakes out of the categories:
1. Plagues
2. Ice storms
3. Tornadoes
(the Spanish flu is in this 2016 dataset, and far outstrips the second-highest-casualty disaster which is *also* a plague (2009); COVID-19 will outstrip it for casualties in turn when that's added, though perhaps not for fatalities; note that ice storms primarily cause problems through power outages)
The first two I knew to prioritise, but I think I've been underestimating tornadoes. They're rare here (I don't think we've had any warnings in the past 15 years, and only a couple of watches), but they're not unheard of, and when they *do* happen they can be nasty.
I will have to look into that. Currently we have exactly one windowless room in the house, and it's well aboveground and its floor would probably collapse if you looked at it funny (repairing the floor in that room is on the List), but I think we could do more to shore up the sheltering power of the basement.
(I already knew I wanted to check and almost certainly enhance the shatter-resistance of our windows--all sorts of disasters can smash those--but I think that will have to wait for after the next energy audit, since I wouldn't be surprised if they recommend replacing the windows anyway. Not much sense in going through all the effort and expense to retrofit windows if they're going to be replaced in a few months.)
---
(part 2)
Yesterday I came across this government database of Canadian disasters.
Sorting Ontarian disasters by descending number of casualties, a clear Top 3 shakes out of the categories:
1. Plagues
2. Ice storms
3. Tornadoes
(the Spanish flu is in this 2016 dataset, and far outstrips the second-highest-casualty disaster which is *also* a plague (2009); COVID-19 will outstrip it for casualties in turn when that's added, though perhaps not for fatalities; note that ice storms primarily cause problems through power outages)
The first two I knew to prioritise, but I think I've been underestimating tornadoes. They're rare here (I don't think we've had any warnings in the past 15 years, and only a couple of watches), but they're not unheard of, and when they *do* happen they can be nasty.
I will have to look into that. Currently we have exactly one windowless room in the house, and it's well aboveground and its floor would probably collapse if you looked at it funny (repairing the floor in that room is on the List), but I think we could do more to shore up the sheltering power of the basement.
(I already knew I wanted to check and almost certainly enhance the shatter-resistance of our windows--all sorts of disasters can smash those--but I think that will have to wait for after the next energy audit, since I wouldn't be surprised if they recommend replacing the windows anyway. Not much sense in going through all the effort and expense to retrofit windows if they're going to be replaced in a few months.)
---
(part 2)
