Date: 2020-03-14 06:39 pm (UTC)
brin_bellway: forget-me-not flowers (Default)
From: [personal profile] brin_bellway
It visually shows how important it is not to assume that the curve of *official* new cases represents the curve of *true* new cases: by the time you *find out* that things are bad, they have been bad for some time. Particularly notable are days like January 23rd, where the number of people who *became symptomatic* that day--the *true* new cases, more or less--was more than *five times* the number of *official* new cases (who are people who caught it a while ago and are now coming to attention).

(In this particular case, thanks to actions taken when things *appeared* to be relatively not that bad, reality was *already on the mend* by the time the official stats really caught on to how bad things were. But the first paragraph is what interests me most.)
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brin_bellway: forget-me-not flowers (Default)
Brin

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