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Jan. 18th, 2025 12:47 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
brin_bellway[Substack; Wayback] (by Matt Glassman)
The me of a month ago, when Scott Alexander asked this hypothetical, thought about it for a bit, didn't come to any satisfying conclusions, then took the $500 with a vague sense of this being the Objectively Incorrect Decision and some self-loathing.
The me of today has been through quite a bit more training on this subject! The me of today has practised taking appropriate risks!
The me of today thinks about it for a bit, pulls out an arcane-looking calculator, types some numbers into it, then says--
"That's above the half-Kelly wager for my bankroll."
--and walks away with $500 and a clear conscience.
At the heart of the book is a simple proposition. Imagine I offered you a choice. You can have $500 no questions asked, or you can roll a die. If you choose the die and it comes up any number but 6, you get nothing. But if it comes up 6, you get $5000.
This book is not about the people who take the $500. But it’s also not about the people who think for a couple of minute and choose to roll the die.
This is a book about the people who instantly grab the die, can’t imagine not instantly grabbing the die, and think anyone who doesn’t instantly grab the die is somewhere between irrational and insane.
The me of a month ago, when Scott Alexander asked this hypothetical, thought about it for a bit, didn't come to any satisfying conclusions, then took the $500 with a vague sense of this being the Objectively Incorrect Decision and some self-loathing.
The me of today has been through quite a bit more training on this subject! The me of today has practised taking appropriate risks!
The me of today thinks about it for a bit, pulls out an arcane-looking calculator, types some numbers into it, then says--
"That's above the half-Kelly wager for my bankroll."
--and walks away with $500 and a clear conscience.
